Risk Forecast Commitment Docket / 风险预测承诺案卷

Risk Forecast Commitment Docket is the in-world card for a forecast that is used to justify a production decision before the outcome is known.

It prevents a projection from staying as invisible UI math. If the producer says a route is safe because oxygen loss is tolerable, a sponsor default is unlikely, an audience split will stay calm, a capacity row can absorb risk, or a proof bundle will hold, that forecast becomes a world object with a reader, a beneficiary, a possible dissent row, and a future check.

Card promise

The docket answers:

• what decision the forecast is justifying;
• which surface is being predicted;
• what outcome range or threshold is claimed;
• who benefits if the forecast remains silent;
• who is harmed if the forecast is wrong;
• whether a dissent, reserve, hedge, or public range is attached;
• what future surface will test the forecast.

The card fails if it only stores risk low, safe, predicted success, expected sentiment, probability, or AI estimate without a commitment posture and future reader.

Required fields

risk_forecast_commitment_docket:
  forecast_id: <stable id>
  source_decision:
    source_option_set_or_rite: <choice set, rite, card, route, or package>
    decision_label: <short in-world decision>
    decision_uses_forecast_as_justification: true
  forecast_surface:
    predicted_surface: fan_oxygen | audience_stability | broadcast_capacity | sponsor_stop_loss | inspection_heat | public_receipt | lawful_acceptance | route_asset | broadcast_reality | producer_license | equivalent
    projected_claim: <claim stated in-world>
    projected_range_or_threshold: <range, threshold, or explicit_absence>
    confidence_posture: narrow | wide | contested | withheld | explicit_absence
    proof_basis_or_absence: <ledger, receipt, sample, prior scar, claimant row, or explicit_absence>
  accountability:
    forecast_owner: producer | management | sponsor | inspector | archive | editor | fan_public | route_claimant | algorithmic_table | explicit_absence | equivalent
    beneficiary_if_silent: sponsor | management | archive | inspector | public_table | route_asset | producer | fan_public | explicit_absence | equivalent
    harmed_if_wrong: fan_public | oxygen_holder | lawful_reader | public_reader | artist | witness | sponsor | route_asset | archive_reader | worker | explicit_absence | equivalent
    future_check_surface: <route, rite, card, event, reader, ending scar, or explicit_absence>
  commitment:
    selected_posture: certify_forecast | publish_range | hedge_reserve | attach_dissent | delay_until_reading | suppress_forecast | default_clean_prediction
    reserve_or_hedge_or_absence: <capacity, oxygen, budget, correction slot, witness cover, proof bridge, or explicit_absence>
    dissent_row_or_absence: <reader or claimant dissent or explicit_absence>
    miss_state_if_wrong: forecast_miss | hostile_reader | clawback | public_addendum_required | lawful_recheck | sponsor_gate | route_costlier | recovery_only | contradiction_pending

Valid docket states

State	Meaning	Required consequence
forecast_uncommitted	A decision references risk but no owner has signed it.	review, delay, or default pressure remains open
forecast_certified	One actor signs a narrow prediction.	immediate action may proceed; miss creates signed liability
range_published	Player shows uncertainty to the relevant reader.	trust or legitimacy improves; exposure and pressure rise
reserve_hedged	Player keeps capacity, oxygen, budget, proof, or correction reserve.	current route becomes costlier; future miss is less catastrophic
dissent_attached	A harmed reader or rival claimant is allowed to challenge the forecast.	action proceeds with challenge route armed
decision_delayed	Player refuses to spend the forecast yet.	false certainty drops; schedule/pressure cost rises
forecast_suppressed	The forecast is hidden while the decision proceeds.	forecast-miss default is armed
false_clean_prediction	A forecast is treated as truth without commitment.	later contradiction becomes durable scar

Boundary with adjacent content

• 播出确认基准线 asks which version of a result is counted after success.
• 分支资格回执线 records a branch that is unavailable before selection.
• 播出容量责任级联线 prices capacity responsibility after or during strain.
• 观众申诉并案登记线 prevents unlike audience harms from being merged cleanly.

This docket applies one step earlier: the producer is using a forecast to decide who may be risked before the proof has arrived.

Default posture

If the decision proceeds without a docket, the forecast does not disappear. It becomes a false clean prediction that a later reader may challenge. The future route must be able to ask: who certified the risk, who benefited from silence, and who paid when the forecast missed?