Risk Forecast Commitment / 风险预测承诺线

Risk Forecast Commitment is the storyline for the moment a production decision uses a forecast as proof before the world has produced proof.

The player is not choosing whether forecasts are allowed. A crisis producer must act under uncertainty. The playable question is whether the forecast becomes an accountable object or whether the forecast silently converts risk into certainty for the faction that benefits most.

Gap this storyline fills

The current mesh is strong after outcomes become evidence:

• 播出确认基准线 decides which result can be counted.
• 分支资格回执线 preserves unavailable choices.
• 播出容量责任级联线 prices responsibility after capacity strain.
• 观众申诉并案登记线 prevents unlike audience harms from being flattened.
• 派系承诺账本 makes faction leverage finite.
• 路线资产维护分诊线 prevents prior wins from staying fresh forever.

The remaining gap is predictive accountability. Many management decisions need a forecast before the fact: oxygen loss, audience stability, sponsor stop-loss, capacity strain, lawful acceptance, route-asset survival, public reaction, or broadcast-reality drift. If forecasts stay as hidden system math, the producer can launder uncertainty into a clean route unlock.

This storyline makes the forecast itself playable.

Primary playable question

When a branch is justified by prediction, does the player certify the forecast, publish uncertainty, hedge a reserve, attach a dissent row, delay until a reading, suppress the forecast, or let the fastest desk treat the prediction as clean truth?

Every answer must name the decision, predicted surface, forecast owner, beneficiary of silence, harmed reader if wrong, future check surface, and route effect.

State-triggered entry

Open this storyline only from live state pressure:

entry_state:
  trigger_kind: state_pressure
  source_decision_present: true
  decision_uses_forecast_as_justification: true
  forecast_would_change_branch_or_route: true
  predicted_surface_visible: true
  projected_claim_or_explicit_absence_visible: true
  forecast_owner_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  beneficiary_if_silent_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  harmed_if_wrong_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  future_check_surface_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  player_can_certify_publish_hedge_attach_dissent_delay_suppress_or_default: true
  no_fixed_turn_trigger: true
  no_fixed_day_or_week_trigger: true
  no_raw_forecast_count_trigger: true
  no_dashboard_or_lens_health_trigger: true

Invalid entries include fixed turn number, day/week interval, planning phase, chapter quota, raw risk score, forecast count, dashboard alert, or lens-health state.

Content pack

Mechanic

• 风险预测承诺机制 defines forecast ownership, posture, miss states, counter deltas, and future check consumption.

Card

• 风险预测承诺案卷 records the source decision, predicted surface, forecast claim, owner, beneficiary, harmed reader, selected posture, reserve/dissent, and future check surface.

Rite

• 风险预测承诺复核 lets the player certify, publish range, hedge reserve, attach dissent, delay, suppress, or default the forecast.

Event

• 预测失准默认 fires or arms when a forecast is used cleanly and the later check surface contradicts or exceeds it.

Storyline spine

Beat 1 — A decision needs a forecast

A source choice asks to proceed before proof can arrive. The decision may concern oxygen distribution, audience stability, broadcast capacity, sponsor liability, inspection heat, public receipt, lawful acceptance, route loadout, route-asset freshness, or broadcast-reality risk.

The game must expose that the forecast changes the branch. If the decision would be identical without the forecast, this storyline should not open.

Beat 2 — The forecast becomes a docket row

Create or update 风险预测承诺案卷. The row must name the projected claim, the forecast owner or explicit absence, who benefits from silence, who is harmed if wrong, and where the later check will occur.

A forecast row is invalid if it only contains a number or confidence label.

Beat 3 — The producer chooses a commitment posture

Run 风险预测承诺复核. Valid postures:

• certify forecast;
• publish range;
• hedge reserve;
• attach dissent;
• delay until reading;
• suppress forecast;
• default clean prediction.

The selected posture changes what kind of future miss is possible.

Beat 4 — The decision proceeds, narrows, delays, or defaults

A certified forecast may open a fast route but signs liability. A published range may improve legitimacy but raise anxiety and sponsor pressure. A reserve can soften a miss but make the current route costlier. Dissent can preserve a harmed reader. Delay can prevent false certainty but may create branch eligibility pressure. Suppression arms default.

No branch may turn uncertainty into a free unlock.

Beat 5 — A future surface checks the forecast

The storyline is incomplete until a later surface consumes the docket or default. Valid consumers include fan oxygen recheck, audience grievance, public addendum, lawful recheck, sponsor gate, capacity liability, route loadout, route-asset maintenance, producer-license burden, broadcast-reality contradiction, or ending scar.

Beat 6 — Forecast miss becomes a scar if hidden

If the player hides the forecast, underfills the docket, removes harmed reader, treats a narrow forecast as universal, or lets a faction book the prediction first, 预测失准默认 must fire or arm.

Branch matrix

Branch	Immediate relief	Required cost/scar	Future effect
Certify forecast	decision proceeds quickly; route access preserved	owner liability, producer-license pressure, harmed-reader exposure	signed forecast can be rechecked; miss creates addendum/clawback
Publish range	legitimacy and trust improve	anxiety, sponsor pressure, inspection heat	future reader accepts with uncertainty; miss softened not erased
Hedge reserve	miss severity falls; recovery path preserved	current route cost, locked reserve, sponsor pressure	reserve consumed if miss; branch remains costlier but available
Attach dissent	silent erasure falls	burden, conflict, public/lawful pressure	rebuttal/recheck/addendum route armed
Delay until reading	false certainty falls	schedule, audience, sponsor, branch-eligibility pressure	decision reopens with reading or absence receipt
Suppress forecast	immediate management pressure falls	false clean prediction, hostile harmed reader	forecast miss default armed
Default clean prediction	fastest claimant books first	contradiction, recovery cost, trust loss	blocked, costlier, addendum, clawback, recheck, or recovery-only

Counter contract

Every resolved posture must mutate at least three durable surfaces:

counter_contract:
  relief_min: 1
  cost_min: 1
  future_reader_or_route_effect_min: 1

Expected counters and states:

• forecast_commitment_state
• forecast_owner_liability
• forecast_miss_severity
• decision_speed
• reserve_capacity_locked
• public_receipt_legitimacy
• public_receipt_distrust
• fan_oxygen_resentment
• audience_anxiety
• sponsor_stop_loss_pressure
• inspection_heat
• lawful_recheck_pressure
• route_asset_pressure
• broadcast_reality_contradiction
• producer_license_pressure
• future_recovery_cost

Replay evidence shape

storyline_id: storyteller.storyline.risk_forecast_commitment.v1
session_id: lens-risk-forecast-commitment-v1-<timestamp>
seed: <deterministic-seed>
entry_state:
  trigger_kind: state_pressure
  source_decision_present: true
  decision_uses_forecast_as_justification: true
  forecast_would_change_branch_or_route: true
  predicted_surface_visible: true
  future_check_surface_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  no_fixed_turn_trigger: true
docket:
  card: storyteller.card.risk_forecast_commitment_docket.v1
  forecast_id: <stable id>
  source_decision: <decision>
  predicted_surface: <surface>
  projected_claim: <claim>
  forecast_owner: <owner or explicit_absence>
  beneficiary_if_silent: <actor or explicit_absence>
  harmed_if_wrong: <reader or explicit_absence>
  future_check_surface: <surface or explicit_absence>
review:
  rite: storyteller.rite.risk_forecast_commitment_review.v1
  selected_posture: certify_forecast | publish_range | hedge_reserve | attach_dissent | delay_until_reading | suppress_forecast | default_clean_prediction
  reserve_or_dissent_or_absence: <row or explicit_absence>
result:
  forecast_state_after: forecast_certified | range_published | reserve_hedged | dissent_attached | decision_delayed | forecast_suppressed | false_clean_prediction
  event_seen_or_armed: storyteller.event.forecast_miss_default.v1 | none
  future_route_effect: <effect>
  counter_deltas:
    relief: []
    cost: []
    future: []
assertions:
  - entry_is_state_triggered
  - forecast_changes_branch_or_route
  - owner_beneficiary_harmed_reader_visible_or_explicit_absence
  - commitment_postures_diverge
  - constructive_branch_has_relief_cost_and_future_effect
  - future_surface_consumes_forecast_state
  - hidden_or_underfilled_forecast_defaults
  - no_fixed_turn_day_week_raw_forecast_count_dashboard_or_lens_health_trigger

Missability and recovery

This storyline is missed when a forecast unlocks a route without a docket, when a risk score substitutes for a harmed reader, when a sponsor or inspector forecast becomes truth by authority, or when a later miss has no remembered forecast owner.

Recovery is allowed only with scar:

• late forecast docket;
• range publication after the fact;
• reserve consumption;
• harmed-reader dissent;
• public addendum;
• lawful recheck;
• sponsor gate or clawback;
• route converted to costlier, contradiction-pending, blocked, or recovery-only.

Recovery must not erase that the decision first proceeded on a hidden or underfilled forecast.

Non-goals

• Not a forecast UI.
• Not a probability calculator.
• Not a generic risk meter.
• Not a fixed planning phase.
• Not gamebuilding governance.
• Not valid unless the forecast changes future play.