Risk Forecast Commitment Review / 风险预测承诺复核

Risk Forecast Commitment Review is the assignable rite that makes a forecast spendable.

A player may still act on uncertain numbers, but the rite forces the forecast to name an owner, a harmed reader, a beneficiary of silence, a reserve or dissent posture, and a future check surface.

Entry requirements

entry_required:
  trigger_kind: state_pressure
  docket_present: storyteller.card.risk_forecast_commitment_docket.v1
  decision_uses_forecast_as_justification: true
  predicted_surface_visible: true
  future_check_surface_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  beneficiary_if_silent_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  harmed_if_wrong_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  player_can_certify_publish_hedge_attach_dissent_delay_suppress_or_default: true
  no_fixed_turn_trigger: true
  no_fixed_day_or_week_trigger: true
  no_raw_forecast_count_trigger: true
  no_dashboard_or_lens_health_trigger: true

The rite is invalid if it opens because a planning phase arrived, because a generic risk meter crossed a threshold, or because the player has a fixed quota of forecasts to sign.

Required assignments

assignment:
  forecast_docket: storyteller.card.risk_forecast_commitment_docket.v1
  decision_label: <decision>
  predicted_surface: <surface>
  projected_claim: <claim>
  forecast_owner: <actor or explicit_absence>
  beneficiary_if_silent: <actor or explicit_absence>
  harmed_if_wrong: <reader or explicit_absence>
  future_check_surface: <surface or explicit_absence>
  handler_or_absence: <handler, desk, proxy, or explicit_absence>
  proof_basis_or_absence: <basis or explicit_absence>
  selected_posture: certify_forecast | publish_range | hedge_reserve | attach_dissent | delay_until_reading | suppress_forecast | default_clean_prediction

No famous handler, sponsor payment, inspector seal, or producer authority may resolve the rite without those slots.

Branches

Certify forecast

The producer signs a narrow forecast and lets the source decision proceed.

relief_any:
  - decision_speed_up
  - sponsor_or_management_confidence_up
  - route_access_preserved
cost_any:
  - forecast_owner_liability_up
  - producer_license_pressure_up
  - harmed_reader_exposure_up
future_effect_any:
  - signed_forecast_can_be_rechecked
  - miss_creates_clawback_or_addendum

Publish range

The producer exposes uncertainty to the reader who will be harmed by a miss.

relief_any:
  - public_receipt_legitimacy_up
  - lawful_or_fan_trust_up
cost_any:
  - sponsor_stop_loss_pressure_up
  - audience_anxiety_up
  - inspection_heat_up
future_effect_any:
  - future_reader_accepts_with_range
  - forecast_miss_softened_but_not_erased

Hedge reserve

The producer keeps oxygen, capacity, budget, correction slot, proof bridge, witness cover, or route asset reserve against the forecast.

relief_any:
  - forecast_miss_severity_down
  - recovery_path_preserved
cost_any:
  - current_route_cost_up
  - capacity_or_budget_locked
  - sponsor_or_management_pressure_up
future_effect_any:
  - reserve_consumed_if_miss
  - future_branch_costlier_but_available

Attach dissent

The producer attaches a dissent row from a harmed reader, rival claimant, lawful reader, fan cohort, artist, witness, or route asset custodian.

relief_any:
  - silent_beneficiary_pressure_down
  - harmed_reader_erasure_down
cost_any:
  - handler_burden_up
  - public_or_lawful_conflict_up
future_effect_any:
  - rebuttal_route_armed
  - forecast_can_be_challenged_later

Delay until reading

The producer refuses to spend the forecast until a reading, sample, receipt, or proof bridge arrives.

relief_any:
  - false_certainty_down
  - forecast_miss_risk_down
cost_any:
  - schedule_pressure_up
  - audience_churn_up
  - sponsor_stop_loss_pressure_up
future_effect_any:
  - decision_reopens_with_reading
  - unavailable_branch_receipt_may_be_needed

Suppress forecast

The producer hides the forecast while still using it to proceed.

relief_any:
  - immediate_management_pressure_down
cost_any:
  - false_clean_prediction_up
  - harmed_reader_hostility_up
future_effect_any:
  - forecast_miss_default_armed
  - future_recovery_cost_up

Default clean prediction

The desk or fastest claimant treats the prediction as truth without owner, range, dissent, reserve, or future check.

emitted_event: storyteller.event.forecast_miss_default.v1
state_after: false_clean_prediction
future_effect_any:
  - public_addendum_required
  - lawful_recheck_required
  - sponsor_gate_required
  - route_costlier
  - recovery_only
  - contradiction_pending

Counter contract

Every constructive branch must mutate at least three durable surfaces:

counter_deltas_required:
  relief: at_least_one
  cost: at_least_one
  future_reader_or_route_effect: at_least_one

The rite fails if it produces only a confidence number, advisory text, mood shift, or generic risk score.