Forecast Variance Addendum / 预测偏差附录

Forecast Variance Addendum is the visible row created when an actual check result arrives after a forecast-backed decision.

It is not a forecast score. It is the bridge between the earlier forecast row and the reader now trying to use the actual outcome.

Required Row

forecast_variance_addendum:
  source_forecast_row: storyteller.card.risk_forecast_commitment_docket.v1 | <equivalent>
  source_forecast_posture: certified | range_published | reserve_hedged | dissent_attached | delayed | suppressed | default_clean_prediction | equivalent
  actual_check_surface: fan_oxygen_recheck | audience_grievance | lawful_recheck | sponsor_gate | capacity_liability | route_asset_maintenance | broadcast_reality | producer_license | equivalent
  forecasted_range_or_claim: <range claim or explicit_absence>
  actual_observed_result: <observed result>
  variance_kind: within_range | above_range | below_range | wrong_reader | delayed_surface | hidden_harmed_reader | reserve_exhausted | equivalent
  owner_or_beneficiary_or_absence: producer | management | sponsor | inspector | archive | editor | route_claimant | explicit_absence
  harmed_reader_or_absence: fan_public | lawful_reader | sponsor_counterdesk | route_asset_holder | archive_reader | public_receipt_reader | explicit_absence
  reserve_or_dissent_or_absence: forecast_reserve | public_range | lawful_dissent | sponsor_hedge | route_asset_warning | explicit_absence
  variance_state_after: reconciled | noticed_publicly | reserve_consumed | clawback_assigned | review_reopened | split_interpretation | unreconciled_false_accuracy
  future_reader_or_route_effect: accepted_with_addendum | public_notice_required | reserve_spent | clawback_due | recheck_required | split_required | blocked | recovery_only

The card fails its purpose if it stores only forecast missed, forecast accurate, actual was high, or a numeric variance without source forecast row, actual check surface, owner/beneficiary, harmed reader, after-state, and future route effect.

Valid Variance Kinds

Kind	Meaning	Minimum consequence
within_range	The check fits the range, but a reader still needs the addendum.	Future use is accepted with addendum, not universal clean accuracy.
above_range	Actual result exceeded the claim.	Reserve, clawback, public notice, or recheck becomes visible.
below_range	Actual result was safer or cheaper than forecast.	Savings cannot be spent until excluded reader and beneficiary are named.
wrong_reader	Forecast checked one reader while another consumes the result.	Split or recheck required.
delayed_surface	The actual check occurred late or in another system.	Delay scar, costlier route, or recovery-only state appears.
hidden_harmed_reader	The comparison hides who pays for variance.	Notice, dissent, or default must surface.
reserve_exhausted	Hedge exists but cannot cover the actual result.	Reserve is spent and future cost remains.

Future Consumers

Valid future consumers include:

• Recognized Basis Escrow Triage;
• Broadcast Capacity Liability Cascade;
• Audience Grievance Merge Register;
• Route Asset Maintenance Triage;
• Producer License Encumbrance;
• Ending Scar Ledger;
• Broadcast Reality.

Missed State

If the card is missing when a future reader consumes forecast accuracy, arm Unreconciled Forecast Variance Default.

missed_state:
  source_forecast_row_or_absence: <row or explicit_absence>
  actual_check_surface_or_absence: <surface or explicit_absence>
  hidden_or_ignored_variance: true
  beneficiary_of_false_accuracy: <actor or explicit_absence>
  harmed_reader_after: hostile | public_counter | lawful_recheck | oxygen_recheck | sponsor_clawback | route_costlier | recovery_only | contradiction_pending