Forecast Variance Reconciliation / 预测偏差复核线

Forecast Variance Reconciliation begins after Risk Forecast Commitment has already created a visible forecast row and the promised future check finally arrives.

The forecast may not be simply right or wrong. The actual oxygen loss, capacity strain, lawful acceptance, public reaction, route-asset freshness, sponsor claim, or broadcast-reality pressure can land inside range, outside range, on a different reader, or with a different beneficiary. This storyline makes that variance playable before anyone books the forecast as clean accuracy or collapses it into a generic miss.

Playable Question

When a checked outcome diverges from the forecast, does production accept the variance with an addendum, publish a harmed-reader notice, consume the hedge reserve, assign owner clawback, reopen forecast review, split reader interpretation, or let an unreconciled variance harden as false accuracy?

Every answer must name:

• the source forecast row;
• the actual check surface;
• the forecasted range or claim;
• the observed result;
• the variance kind;
• the owner, beneficiary, or explicit absence;
• the harmed reader or explicit absence;
• the selected reconciliation posture;
• one relief surface;
• one cost surface;
• the future reader or route effect.

State-Triggered Entry

Open this storyline only when the later check is present and about to be consumed:

entry_state:
  trigger_kind: state_pressure
  source_forecast_row_present: true
  actual_check_surface_present: true
  variance_between_forecast_and_actual_visible: true
  beneficiary_or_owner_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  harmed_reader_or_explicit_absence_visible: true
  future_reader_consumes_variance_state: true
  no_fixed_turn_trigger: true
  no_fixed_day_or_week_trigger: true
  no_raw_forecast_count_trigger: true
  no_dashboard_or_lens_health_trigger: true

Do not open from a generic forecast score, postmortem timer, dashboard warning, lens health state, or fixed cleanup phase. The trigger is a concrete future reader trying to consume the checked variance.

Bound Content Pack

• Forecast Variance Reconciliation defines actual-vs-forecast variance states, owner/beneficiary pressure, harmed-reader handling, and false-accuracy default.
• Forecast Variance Addendum records the source forecast row, actual check surface, observed result, variance kind, responsible/benefiting actor, harmed reader, after-state, and future route effect.
• Forecast Variance Reconciliation resolves addendum, public notice, hedge consumption, clawback, review reopen, split interpretation, or default posture.
• Unreconciled Forecast Variance Default records when a checked variance is hidden, treated as clean accuracy, or turned into a generic forecast miss without row state.
• Forecast Variance Reconciliation Lens observes the packet and computed branch contract.

Storyline Spine

Beat 1 - The future check arrives

A fan oxygen recheck, audience grievance, lawful recheck, sponsor gate, capacity liability review, route loadout, route-asset maintenance pass, producer-license burden, broadcast-reality contradiction, or ending scar reads a prior forecast.

The check produces an actual result. It must not be swallowed by a hidden comparison against the forecast.

Beat 2 - The addendum separates forecast from outcome

Create or refresh Forecast Variance Addendum.

forecast_variance_addendum:
  source_forecast_row: storyteller.card.risk_forecast_commitment_docket.v1 | <equivalent>
  actual_check_surface: fan_oxygen_recheck | audience_grievance | lawful_recheck | sponsor_gate | capacity_liability | route_asset_maintenance | broadcast_reality | producer_license | equivalent
  forecasted_range_or_claim: <range claim or explicit_absence>
  actual_observed_result: <observed result>
  variance_kind: within_range | above_range | below_range | wrong_reader | delayed_surface | hidden_harmed_reader | reserve_exhausted | equivalent
  owner_or_beneficiary_or_absence: producer | management | sponsor | inspector | archive | editor | route_claimant | explicit_absence
  harmed_reader_or_absence: fan_public | lawful_reader | sponsor_counterdesk | route_asset_holder | archive_reader | public_receipt_reader | explicit_absence
  variance_state_after: reconciled | noticed_publicly | reserve_consumed | clawback_assigned | review_reopened | split_interpretation | unreconciled_false_accuracy
  future_reader_or_route_effect: accepted_with_addendum | public_notice_required | reserve_spent | clawback_due | recheck_required | split_required | blocked | recovery_only

The addendum fails if it only says “forecast missed” or “forecast accurate.” It must show what was checked, how it varied, who benefited from clean accuracy, who was harmed, and what future reader can do with the result.

Beat 3 - The reconciliation chooses posture

Run Forecast Variance Reconciliation. Valid posture families are:

• accept within-range addendum;
• publish variance notice;
• consume hedge reserve;
• assign owner clawback;
• reopen forecast review;
• split reader interpretation;
• unreconciled forecast variance default.

Every posture preserves the source forecast row while changing relief, cost, and future-reader state.

Beat 4 - Future play consumes variance state

The future reader must read variance_state_after, not a bare accuracy boolean. A result may be accepted with addendum, public-notice required, reserve-spent, clawback-due, recheck-required, split-required, blocked, recovery-only, or false-accuracy scarred.

Beat 5 - False accuracy becomes a durable scar

If management, sponsor, archive, production, or the forecast owner files the checked result as clean accuracy while hiding variance, owner, beneficiary, harmed reader, reserve, or future effect, Unreconciled Forecast Variance Default fires or remains armed.

Branch Map

Branch	Immediate relief	Cost/scar	Future state
Accept within-range addendum	forecast remains usable with checked context	owner liability or addendum burden remains	accepted_with_addendum
Publish variance notice	harmed reader can answer the variance	public anxiety, sponsor pressure, or inspection heat rises	public_notice_required
Consume hedge reserve	miss severity falls	reserve, capacity, or sponsor collateral is spent	reserve_spent
Assign owner clawback	false clean accuracy weakens	owner liability, producer-license, or faction pressure rises	clawback_due
Reopen forecast review	bad comparison is corrected	delay, handler burden, or lawful recheck rises	recheck_required
Split reader interpretation	incompatible readers stay explicit	ambiguity and future reconciliation cost rise	split_required
Default false accuracy	short relief may appear	false accuracy hardens	blocked_or_recovery_only

No branch may turn one checked forecast into clean accuracy for public, lawful, sponsor, archive, management, route-asset, and broadcast readers at once.

Missability And Recovery

This storyline is missed when implementation:

• compares forecast and actual result as hidden math;
• records a forecast miss without source forecast row or actual check surface;
• treats within-range as universal accuracy;
• hides the harmed reader or the beneficiary of false accuracy;
• lets a future route consume forecast accuracy without an addendum.

Recovery requires visible cost: publish late variance notice, spend reserve, assign clawback, reopen forecast review, split reader interpretation, mark the route recovery-only, or accept producer-license pressure.

Non-goals

Not a new forecasting system, probability model, generic analytics page, replay-debug comparison, or replacement for Risk Forecast Commitment. The forecast commitment remains true; this storyline controls how the later variance is consumed.