Unreconciled Forecast Variance Default / 未复核预测偏差默认

Unreconciled Forecast Variance Default fires or arms when an actual check result is consumed as clean forecast accuracy while the variance row is missing, hidden, underfilled, or filed as a generic forecast miss.

It is not a penalty for being wrong. It is a durable event for false accuracy: someone benefits from treating the checked outcome as if the original forecast cleanly covered every future reader.

Fire Conditions

Fire or record this event when any of the following are true:

1. a future route consumes forecast accuracy without Forecast Variance Addendum;
2. an actual check surface exists but is hidden from the future reader;
3. within-range is treated as universal accuracy;
4. above-range or reserve-exhausted variance spends the reserve without naming who remains harmed;
5. below-range variance releases a beneficiary while hiding the excluded reader;
6. wrong-reader or delayed-surface variance is treated as harmless;
7. the forecast owner, beneficiary, harmed reader, or future route effect is blank rather than explicit absence.

Required Payload

unreconciled_forecast_variance_default:
  event: storyteller.event.unreconciled_forecast_variance_default.v1
  source_forecast_row_or_absence: <forecast row or explicit_absence>
  actual_check_surface: fan_oxygen_recheck | audience_grievance | lawful_recheck | sponsor_gate | capacity_liability | route_asset_maintenance | broadcast_reality | producer_license | explicit_absence | equivalent
  forecasted_range_or_claim_or_absence: <range claim or explicit_absence>
  actual_observed_result_or_absence: <observed result or explicit_absence>
  hidden_or_ignored_variance: within_range_universalized | above_range_hidden | below_range_savings_laundered | wrong_reader_hidden | delayed_surface_hidden | reserve_exhausted_hidden | addendum_absent | equivalent
  beneficiary_of_false_accuracy: producer | management | sponsor | inspector | archive | editor | route_claimant | explicit_absence | equivalent
  harmed_reader_after: hostile | public_counter | lawful_recheck | oxygen_recheck | sponsor_clawback | route_costlier | recovery_only | contradiction_pending | equivalent
  variance_state_after: unreconciled_false_accuracy | public_only | lawful_only | sponsor_only | split_required | recovery_only | blocked | equivalent
  future_route_effect: blocked | costlier | public_notice_required | lawful_recheck_required | sponsor_clawback_required | reserve_reopened | split_required | recovery_only | contradiction_pending | equivalent
  counter_deltas_min: 3
  durable_mutation: true

The event fails if it only says forecast was wrong, lowers mood, changes a hidden risk score, or posts a warning without mutating future route state.

Future Hooks

After this event, future play may open:

• late forecast variance notice;
• owner clawback;
• lawful recheck;
• sponsor gate dispute;
• public addendum;
• reserve reopen;
• route-asset maintenance surcharge;
• broadcast-reality contradiction;
• producer-license encumbrance.

Non-goals

Not a random bad-luck event, score penalty, analytics warning, or replacement for Forecast Miss Default. Forecast Miss Default handles hidden forecast use before or during a check. This event handles an actual checked variance being consumed as false accuracy.