Forecast Miss Default / 预测失准默认

Forecast Miss Default is the event that fires or arms when a forecast was used as clean justification and the later world refuses that prediction.

It is not a generic bad-luck event. It must name the source forecast, the decision that relied on it, the missing commitment posture, the harmed reader, the beneficiary of silence, and the future route effect.

Fire or arm conditions

fire_or_arm_when:
  decision_used_forecast_as_justification: true
  forecast_docket_missing_or_underfilled: true
  later_check_surface_present: true
  later_check_surface_contradicts_or_exceeds_forecast: true
  forecast_owner_missing_or_unprotected: true
  harmed_reader_or_explicit_absence_visible: true
  beneficiary_if_silent_or_explicit_absence_visible: true
  no_fixed_turn_trigger: true

Valid later check surfaces include fan oxygen recheck, audience grievance, broadcast capacity strain, sponsor stop-loss demand, public receipt contradiction, lawful recheck, route loadout failure, producer-license burden, or broadcast-reality drift.

Required event payload

forecast_miss_default:
  event: storyteller.event.forecast_miss_default.v1
  source_forecast_id_or_absence: <forecast id or explicit_absence>
  source_decision: <decision label>
  predicted_surface: fan_oxygen | audience_stability | broadcast_capacity | sponsor_stop_loss | inspection_heat | public_receipt | lawful_acceptance | route_asset | broadcast_reality | producer_license | equivalent
  projected_claim_or_absence: <claim or explicit_absence>
  later_check_surface: <surface that tested the forecast>
  miss_kind: threshold_breached | range_hidden | harmed_reader_hidden | reserve_absent | dissent_suppressed | owner_absent | false_clean_prediction | equivalent
  beneficiary_if_silent: <actor or explicit_absence>
  harmed_reader_after: hostile | public_counter | lawful_recheck | oxygen_recheck | sponsor_clawback | route_costlier | recovery_only | contradiction_pending | equivalent
  future_route_effect: public_addendum_required | lawful_recheck_required | sponsor_gate_required | reserve_consumed | route_costlier | blocked | recovery_only | contradiction_pending | equivalent
  counter_deltas_min: 3

Event results

The event must change future play. Accepted results include:

• fan oxygen resentment rises and a recheck branch opens;
• public receipt requires an addendum or range publication;
• sponsor gate, clawback, or stop-loss route is armed;
• lawful reader forces recheck or annex;
• route asset becomes costlier, public-only, lawful-only, blocked, or recovery-only;
• producer license pressure rises because the forecast owner was absent;
• broadcast reality receives contradiction-pending state.

The event fails if it only says forecast was wrong, lowers a score, displays warning text, or changes mood without a route/counter mutation.

Default boundaries

This event is not used when the player published range, attached dissent, hedged reserve, delayed the decision, or certified the forecast with a visible miss consequence and the later route consumes that consequence correctly.

It is used when the game would otherwise let uncertainty become invisible certainty.