Risk Forecast Commitment / 风险预测承诺机制

Risk Forecast Commitment is the mechanism that turns a prediction used by management into a playable obligation.

Storyteller already tracks many outcomes after they become evidence, receipts, loadouts, grievances, or scars. This mechanism handles the earlier management edge: the producer acts before proof exists, using a forecast to decide who may be exposed to risk.

A forecast is valid only when it becomes answerable later. It must not remain a hidden confidence score.

Mechanic promise

When a decision is justified by predicted oxygen loss, audience stability, capacity strain, sponsor liability, lawful acceptance, route-asset survival, public response, or broadcast-reality drift, the game must ask:

Who signs the forecast, who benefits from treating it as clean, who is harmed if it misses, and what future surface will test it?

The player must be able to certify, publish range, hedge reserve, attach dissent, delay, suppress, or default the forecast. Each branch must mutate at least one current pressure and one future route/reader state.

State-triggered entry

entry_required:
  trigger_kind: state_pressure
  source_decision_present: true
  decision_uses_forecast_as_justification: true
  predicted_surface_visible: true
  forecast_would_change_branch_or_route: true
  beneficiary_if_silent_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  harmed_if_wrong_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  future_check_surface_visible_or_explicit_absence: true
  player_can_certify_publish_hedge_attach_dissent_delay_suppress_or_default: true
  no_fixed_turn_trigger: true
  no_fixed_day_or_week_trigger: true
  no_raw_forecast_count_trigger: true
  no_dashboard_or_lens_health_trigger: true

Invalid entries include a planning phase, fixed countdown, chapter marker, raw prediction count, dashboard risk alert, lens-health state, or generic difficulty increase.

State model

forecast_commitment:
  forecast_id: <stable id>
  decision_label: <decision>
  predicted_surface: fan_oxygen | audience_stability | broadcast_capacity | sponsor_stop_loss | inspection_heat | public_receipt | lawful_acceptance | route_asset | broadcast_reality | producer_license | equivalent
  projected_claim: <claim>
  confidence_posture: narrow | wide | contested | withheld | explicit_absence
  forecast_owner: producer | management | sponsor | inspector | archive | editor | fan_public | route_claimant | algorithmic_table | explicit_absence | equivalent
  beneficiary_if_silent: <actor or explicit_absence>
  harmed_if_wrong: <reader or explicit_absence>
  future_check_surface: <surface or explicit_absence>
  selected_posture: certify_forecast | publish_range | hedge_reserve | attach_dissent | delay_until_reading | suppress_forecast | default_clean_prediction
  forecast_state_after: forecast_certified | range_published | reserve_hedged | dissent_attached | decision_delayed | forecast_suppressed | false_clean_prediction

Resolution rules

Rule 1 — Forecasts cannot unlock routes silently

If a route, package, correction, oxygen allocation, sponsor concession, public statement, lawful bridge, or route-loadout decision is unlocked by a forecast, the forecast must have a docket row or a default-ready miss state.

Rule 2 — Certification creates liability

A certified forecast may reduce immediate uncertainty and let a decision proceed, but the forecast owner becomes reachable by later miss, clawback, addendum, lawful recheck, or producer-license pressure.

Rule 3 — Range publication trades certainty for legitimacy

Publishing range can improve public, lawful, fan, or route-reader trust, but it raises exposure, anxiety, sponsor pressure, inspection heat, or management burden.

Rule 4 — Reserve hedge keeps recovery alive

A hedge may preserve oxygen, capacity, budget, correction slot, proof bridge, witness cover, or route-asset reserve. It must also make the current branch costlier or narrower.

Rule 5 — Dissent prevents silent erasure

A dissent row lets the player proceed with a forecast while preserving a harmed reader or rival claimant. The dissent must arm a future rebuttal, recheck, or addendum route.

Rule 6 — Delay is a branch, not idle time

Delaying until a reading lowers false certainty but raises schedule, sponsor, audience, capacity, or branch-eligibility pressure. Delay must have a named reopening surface.

Rule 7 — Suppression hardens the miss

Suppressing the forecast can lower immediate pressure, but it must arm 预测失准默认 or an equivalent false-clean prediction state.

Branch outputs

A resolved forecast must change at least three surfaces:

• forecast_commitment_state
• forecast_owner_liability
• decision_speed
• public_receipt_legitimacy
• public_receipt_distrust
• fan_oxygen_resentment
• audience_anxiety
• sponsor_stop_loss_pressure
• inspection_heat
• lawful_recheck_pressure
• route_asset_pressure
• broadcast_reality_contradiction
• producer_license_pressure
• reserve_capacity_locked
• future_recovery_cost
• forecast_miss_severity

Integration notes

• With 播出确认基准线, this mechanism acts before a result is counted; recognition still decides what counts after success.
• With 分支资格回执线, delay or hedge can make a branch unavailable with a receipt rather than silent disappearance.
• With 播出容量责任级联线, a capacity forecast can later become capacity liability if the prediction was certified or suppressed.
• With 派系承诺账本, a sponsor, inspector, archive, editor, or fan commitment can own or challenge a forecast.
• With 路线资产维护分诊线, a forecast about route-asset freshness must be rechecked when the asset is used.

Non-goals

• Not a probability UI.
• Not a generic risk meter.
• Not a forecasting minigame.
• Not a dashboard or governance page.
• Not a fixed planning phase.
• Not valid if the forecast has no owner, harmed reader, beneficiary, future check, branch posture, and miss consequence.